In today's Hollywood only two things are important; opening #1 at the box office and having the highest box office gross. There is no film in the summer line-up that can beat the current champion, James Cameron's "Avatar", but there are some films that will make some big bucks and there are some that will go down in flames. There are 96 films scheduled for release in the next four months. Here are my predictions for the top five films of the summer, plus a list of the biggest releases.
Toy Story 2 made $245 at the box office in 1999 and subsequent Pixar films have done even better than that. The film has a built in audience from kids to adults who saw the original in 1995. The trailer looks as if the creative team at Pixar found a way to continue the adventures of Woody, Buzz and the gang without selling them out. And this one will be in 3-D. I expect it to gross over $450 million. Opens June 18
In 2008 Iron Man beat out Indiana Jones at the box office. I expect him to beat all comers this year except Woody and Buzz. The second entry in a comic book franchise can be great. The characters have been established and the screenplay does not have to bother with the heroes origin story. The movie can jump right to the action. Superman 2 (1980), Spider-Man 2 (2004) and The Dark Knight (2008) have all been great examples of how the sequel can out do the original. I expect Iron Man 2 to make $400 million at the box office. I also expect it to keep the # 1 spot in the second week of its release with Robin Hood coming in second.
Yes another sequel. The third installment of The Twilight Sag has a built in audience. The second movie was released just 6 months ago, but I think the Twihards are ready for more.
Opening the second week in May this mash-up between Gladiator and Braveheart will not be able to knock Iron Man 2 from the #1 spot. I expect it to make $100 million because it will draw the Russell Crowe fans. if it gets good reviews it will add another $50 million.
A film based on the comic strip drawn by Brad Anderson since 1954. All depends on the CGI of the dog. Remember Scooby-Do? It wasn't pretty. Opens June 4
I see this and I can't help thinking of Species from 1995. It was a sci-fi horror movie about splicing DNA and creating a monster. This movie is about splicing DNA and creating a monster. Hope it's better. Opens June 4
The A-Team needs no explanations. Expect it to be bigger, louder and even more bad ass than the TV show. Mr T. has given his blessing. If it's fun it will break the $120 million mark and have a sequel
I saw the trailer and I am looking forward to this. I think it is a great role for Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith has already proven himself a capable actor. the original film came out 26 years ago so this film will speak to a new generation of kids. But the story of standing up for yourself against a bully is timeless. I think this film will do better box office than expected and will take Hollywood by surprise. Opens June 11.
Based on a graphic novel, it's about an Un-dead (zombie) sheriff in the old west. Films based on Graphic novels have been hit or miss. Does not have wide audience appeal (I know I'll wait for the DVD.) Opens June 18
paired-up in "Vanilla Sky". This time they are in an old fashioned buddy action-comedy. Tom's first big summer pic since 2006 Mission:Impossible:III. From the trailer it looks like fun and I think it will be a hit for Tom, Cameron and 20th Century Fox. $180 million. Opens June 25
The left will love it and the right will scream. Opens July 7
Based on the kids cartoon "Avatar:The Last Airbender"on Nickelodeon, this is the first film in a planned trilogy directed by M. Night. Shyamalan. It is the first film he is directing that is based on a story from someone else. The cartoon has a popular following with kids and fanboys but will it be enough to make the film a success. Opens July 2
Jonah Hill's second film of the summer is an independent film from Fox Searchlight Pictures. The comedy was a hit at Sundance this year. Opens July 9
I have seen the trailer for this movie a number of times and I still have no clue what it's about. But it looks funny and has Steve Carrell being despicable. Count me in! Opens July 9
Hmm. I seem to be having 80's flash backs first the A-Team, Then the Karate Kid and now Predator. Please don't tell me the eighties are back in style. I saw Hot Tub Time Machine and I don't want to relive that decade! Adrian Brody and Topher Grace star in this remake/sequel to the 1987 film. (Unfortunately Arnold will not be back.)
This could be the non-sequel hit of the summer. From the director who brought us Memento, Insomnia and The Prestige, as well as the two Batman films, this films promises to be a reality twisting, mind-bending thriller like the Matrix. The trailer looks very promising without giving a clue about the content. If it's really good it could amke some big box office $175 million which would be Nolan's best outside of the Batman Franchise. Opens July 16
Steve Carrell and paul Rudd team up for the third time (40 Year Old Virgin and Anchorman) in this adaptation of a french black comedy. Opens July 23
Originally meant to star Tom Cruise this CIA agent on the run thriller looks to be the start of a new franchise for Jolie. based on the box office performance of Wanted and Mr. & Mrs. Smith men like seeing angela Jolie with a gun in her hand. estimate $190 million. Opens July 23
Based on the best selling kids book by Beverly Cleary, Beezus and ramona was first published in 1954. The stoires have only grown in popularity over the years. I read the henry Huggins books when I was a kid. The stories themselves have been timeless and if the film makers capture the essence of the books they will have a kids hit franchise on their hands.
I guess they were concerned that chipmunks and guinea pigs were stealing their spotlight so Cats & Dogs from the 2001 film are back in a sequel. The original was a surprise hit with $90 million in ticket sales. But all the kids who went to see it are 9 years older. I am betting the 3-D version will find a new audience. Remember last year's G-Force made $120 million. 
Step Up 3-D...reminds me of the title Jaws 3-D and we all know how that turned out. the step up movies have a lot of energy and the first two films earned a combined U.S. box office of $123 million. That's a lot of stepping
Julia Roberts arrives in a chick flic for late summer. Based on the best selling book and written and directed by the creator of Glee, this could be a big hit for Julia or it could be loaded with schmalts and tank. I think it will be a hit and Julia will be up for an Oscar come next winter. Opens August 13
The eighties are back with this homage to 80's style action films that includes cameos from Willis and Shwarzenegger the two biggest action starts of all' Directed and Written by Stallone. Pure testoserone. Opens August 13
Nanny McPhee Returns is the U.S. title of the film. late summer kiddy entry that should be as enjoyable as the first. Emma Thompson plans on making a few of these films. Opens August 20
Does Jennifer Anston have a movie come out every six months? It seems like it. This romantic comedy opens August 20
The last big action pic of the summer. bank Robbers and bad guys. Opens Aug 20.
I predict the #1 box office champion of the summer will be:
Toy Story 2 made $245 at the box office in 1999 and subsequent Pixar films have done even better than that. The film has a built in audience from kids to adults who saw the original in 1995. The trailer looks as if the creative team at Pixar found a way to continue the adventures of Woody, Buzz and the gang without selling them out. And this one will be in 3-D. I expect it to gross over $450 million. Opens June 18The number 2 spot will go to:
In 2008 Iron Man beat out Indiana Jones at the box office. I expect him to beat all comers this year except Woody and Buzz. The second entry in a comic book franchise can be great. The characters have been established and the screenplay does not have to bother with the heroes origin story. The movie can jump right to the action. Superman 2 (1980), Spider-Man 2 (2004) and The Dark Knight (2008) have all been great examples of how the sequel can out do the original. I expect Iron Man 2 to make $400 million at the box office. I also expect it to keep the # 1 spot in the second week of its release with Robin Hood coming in second. Opens May 7
The third spot will go to:
Most film series get to a third picture and quit. After the poor reviews for Shrek 3 it was expected to be the last. But the studios can't give up that box office and the Shrek series has been highly lucrative so here comes Shrek 4. Shrek 2 made $441 million in 2004 but it was up against Van Helsing, Troy, The Stepford Wives and The terminal. Not many options for folks looking for quality. Plus it was a really good sequel. Shrek the Third lasted in theatres only 12 weeks and made $322 million and it was not as good. Based on the trailer I expect this one to return to form and get positive reviews, but it's success will be cut short by the release of Toy Story 3 in late June. look for a box office of $350 million. Opens May 21
In 4th place will be:
Yes another sequel. The third installment of The Twilight Sag has a built in audience. The second movie was released just 6 months ago, but I think the Twihards are ready for more.The last movie did $296 million and received better reviews. I expect the third installment should do as well, especially since it holds the coveted 4th of July weekend spot.
Opens June 30
The 5th spot will go to:
From the producer, director and stars of the National Treasure films comes this fantasy based on the Sorcerer's Apprentice segment from Fantasia. The movie holds the coveted mid-July spot held by Harry Potter and The Dark Knight, has the marketing push of Disney behind it, and across the board appeal to kids and adults. I expect it to make $275 million at the box-office. Opens 16
Here are the rest of the summer contenders (please remember release dates are subject to change):
Opening the second week in May this mash-up between Gladiator and Braveheart will not be able to knock Iron Man 2 from the #1 spot. I expect it to make $100 million because it will draw the Russell Crowe fans. if it gets good reviews it will add another $50 million.Opens May 14
The first chic flick of the summer and an alternate to all the action pics. Will be #3 at the box office and have strong staying power. Opens May 14
A SNL sketch brought to the big screen. Five minutes on TV does not usually make for a good 90 minute comedy. For every Wayne's World there have been It's Pat, Stuart Saves His Family, The Coneheads and A Night At the Roxbury. Opens May 21 (I'll be in line for Shrek)
This has a built in audience, fans of the first movie and the HBO show, I am neither. The first one made $152 million but there might be a sense of "been there, done that" and this movie will make about 20% less. Opens May 27
Based on a video game, but looks more like "Pirates Of The Persian Desert". Lots of special effects in the trailer. The movie has the coveted memorial day weekend spot and the fan boys will need another action pic after Iron Man 2. Plus the girls will want to see Jake. Either a big budget bomb or a box office hit. $160 million. Opens May 28
A spin off of Forgetting Sarah Marshall with the popular Jonah Hill. The first real comedy of the summer. Won't beat The Hangover. Opens June 4
The first chic flick of the summer and an alternate to all the action pics. Will be #3 at the box office and have strong staying power. Opens May 14
A SNL sketch brought to the big screen. Five minutes on TV does not usually make for a good 90 minute comedy. For every Wayne's World there have been It's Pat, Stuart Saves His Family, The Coneheads and A Night At the Roxbury. Opens May 21 (I'll be in line for Shrek)
This has a built in audience, fans of the first movie and the HBO show, I am neither. The first one made $152 million but there might be a sense of "been there, done that" and this movie will make about 20% less. Opens May 27
Based on a video game, but looks more like "Pirates Of The Persian Desert". Lots of special effects in the trailer. The movie has the coveted memorial day weekend spot and the fan boys will need another action pic after Iron Man 2. Plus the girls will want to see Jake. Either a big budget bomb or a box office hit. $160 million. Opens May 28
A spin off of Forgetting Sarah Marshall with the popular Jonah Hill. The first real comedy of the summer. Won't beat The Hangover. Opens June 4
A film based on the comic strip drawn by Brad Anderson since 1954. All depends on the CGI of the dog. Remember Scooby-Do? It wasn't pretty. Opens June 4
I see this and I can't help thinking of Species from 1995. It was a sci-fi horror movie about splicing DNA and creating a monster. This movie is about splicing DNA and creating a monster. Hope it's better. Opens June 4
The A-Team needs no explanations. Expect it to be bigger, louder and even more bad ass than the TV show. Mr T. has given his blessing. If it's fun it will break the $120 million mark and have a sequel
I saw the trailer and I am looking forward to this. I think it is a great role for Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith has already proven himself a capable actor. the original film came out 26 years ago so this film will speak to a new generation of kids. But the story of standing up for yourself against a bully is timeless. I think this film will do better box office than expected and will take Hollywood by surprise. Opens June 11.
Based on a graphic novel, it's about an Un-dead (zombie) sheriff in the old west. Films based on Graphic novels have been hit or miss. Does not have wide audience appeal (I know I'll wait for the DVD.) Opens June 18
paired-up in "Vanilla Sky". This time they are in an old fashioned buddy action-comedy. Tom's first big summer pic since 2006 Mission:Impossible:III. From the trailer it looks like fun and I think it will be a hit for Tom, Cameron and 20th Century Fox. $180 million. Opens June 25If you look at the individual box office performance for some of these comics, this movie should be a smash. But it really depends on what audience it is aiming for. If it ends up being mostly the crude Adam Sander schtick then it won't find it's audience. But based on the trailers I have seen it looks like it is going for a broader family comedy (think Eddie Murphy in Doctor Dolittle). If it's funny and finds that audience this will be big. $150 million at the box office big. Opens June 25
The left will love it and the right will scream. Opens July 7
Based on the kids cartoon "Avatar:The Last Airbender"on Nickelodeon, this is the first film in a planned trilogy directed by M. Night. Shyamalan. It is the first film he is directing that is based on a story from someone else. The cartoon has a popular following with kids and fanboys but will it be enough to make the film a success. Opens July 2
Jonah Hill's second film of the summer is an independent film from Fox Searchlight Pictures. The comedy was a hit at Sundance this year. Opens July 9
I have seen the trailer for this movie a number of times and I still have no clue what it's about. But it looks funny and has Steve Carrell being despicable. Count me in! Opens July 9
Hmm. I seem to be having 80's flash backs first the A-Team, Then the Karate Kid and now Predator. Please don't tell me the eighties are back in style. I saw Hot Tub Time Machine and I don't want to relive that decade! Adrian Brody and Topher Grace star in this remake/sequel to the 1987 film. (Unfortunately Arnold will not be back.)
This could be the non-sequel hit of the summer. From the director who brought us Memento, Insomnia and The Prestige, as well as the two Batman films, this films promises to be a reality twisting, mind-bending thriller like the Matrix. The trailer looks very promising without giving a clue about the content. If it's really good it could amke some big box office $175 million which would be Nolan's best outside of the Batman Franchise. Opens July 16
Steve Carrell and paul Rudd team up for the third time (40 Year Old Virgin and Anchorman) in this adaptation of a french black comedy. Opens July 23
Originally meant to star Tom Cruise this CIA agent on the run thriller looks to be the start of a new franchise for Jolie. based on the box office performance of Wanted and Mr. & Mrs. Smith men like seeing angela Jolie with a gun in her hand. estimate $190 million. Opens July 23
Based on the best selling kids book by Beverly Cleary, Beezus and ramona was first published in 1954. The stoires have only grown in popularity over the years. I read the henry Huggins books when I was a kid. The stories themselves have been timeless and if the film makers capture the essence of the books they will have a kids hit franchise on their hands.
I guess they were concerned that chipmunks and guinea pigs were stealing their spotlight so Cats & Dogs from the 2001 film are back in a sequel. The original was a surprise hit with $90 million in ticket sales. But all the kids who went to see it are 9 years older. I am betting the 3-D version will find a new audience. Remember last year's G-Force made $120 million. Opens July 30
Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg in a buddy cop comedy that has a strong supporting cast and a director that knows how to get the best out of Ferrell. Could be funny. Opens August 6
Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg in a buddy cop comedy that has a strong supporting cast and a director that knows how to get the best out of Ferrell. Could be funny. Opens August 6
Step Up 3-D...reminds me of the title Jaws 3-D and we all know how that turned out. the step up movies have a lot of energy and the first two films earned a combined U.S. box office of $123 million. That's a lot of stepping
Julia Roberts arrives in a chick flic for late summer. Based on the best selling book and written and directed by the creator of Glee, this could be a big hit for Julia or it could be loaded with schmalts and tank. I think it will be a hit and Julia will be up for an Oscar come next winter. Opens August 13
The eighties are back with this homage to 80's style action films that includes cameos from Willis and Shwarzenegger the two biggest action starts of all' Directed and Written by Stallone. Pure testoserone. Opens August 13
If this is anything like the script I wrote with Cheryl I'll be pissed. besides they used my title. I am pissed. Opens August 20
Nanny McPhee Returns is the U.S. title of the film. late summer kiddy entry that should be as enjoyable as the first. Emma Thompson plans on making a few of these films. Opens August 20
Does Jennifer Anston have a movie come out every six months? It seems like it. This romantic comedy opens August 20
The last big action pic of the summer. bank Robbers and bad guys. Opens Aug 20.Prehistoric piranhas come flying off the screen. need I say more/ Oh, and Richard Dreyfuss is in it. he's come a long way from Jaws! Opens Aug 27
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